The 2014 Story of the Year: Pacquiao’s next move

A crystal ball is just another glass chin, which is one way of saying New Year predictions have no chance. They’re fun, but they’re also about as likely as Top Rank’s Bob Arum and Golden Boy’s Richard Schaefer wishing each other a Happy in any holiday season. More of the feud appears to be the only sure thing. But it also appears to be headed for a new level of acrimony, perhaps even a make-or-break confrontation, over Manny Pacquiao.

There’s potential for a lot of intriguing stories, but Pacquiao’s Top Rank contract figures to be the biggest in 2014. He has one year left on a deal extended in October 2012 through the end of 2014.

Leave it up to some other self-appointed Nostradamus to predict what Pacquiao will do. His loyalty to Bob Arum has been unshakable since 2006 when he spurned a Golden Boy offer, which reportedly included a suitcase stuffed with a $250,000 in cash. But loyalty is about as fragile as that crystal ball. In some ways, Pacquiao is to boxing what Peyton Manning was to the NFL after the Indianapolis Colts released him following a 2011 season on the injured list. The quarterback eventually signed a landmark deal with the Denver Broncos in March, 2012. Pacquiao’s potential free agency could also transform boxing’s landscape, at least for a while.

Pacquiao enters the final year of his Top Rank contract amid questions. He answered some, but not all, in his one-sided decision over Brandon Rios in November at Macao. Speed was still there. He didn’t appear to have any lingering effects from the crushing knockout he suffered against Juan Manuel Marquez in December, 2012. So far, so good, although Rios’ style proved to be the perfect comeback for Pacquiao’s skill set. The true yardstick for whether he is still the fighter of five years ago won’t be determined until — or if — he faces Marquez or Timothy Bradley in a rematch.

On the business side of the ledger, the bigger question is his drawing power. Pay-per-view reports for his victory over Rios put the Home Box Office audience at between 475,000 and 500,000. It’s a good number for anybody not named Pacquiao or Floyd Mayweather Jr. More on that later. Arum predicted that the pay-per-view number would take a hit. It did, maybe because it was in China and away from the daily pre-fight media coverage in the United States. Again, maybe.

But Arum’s decision to bring Pacquiao back to the U.S., perhaps in April, doesn’t appear to be a coincidence. Without television’s traditional infrastructure and the daily headlines, the PPV number in Pacquiao’s first U.S. fight in more than a year will be a true test. If the PPV number disappoints, it might be a sign that Pacquiao and Top Rank will go their separate ways. If it’s closer to one million, look for Arum to introduce negotiations for another extension.

Thus far, there’s been no news that one is on the table. Pacquiao and Arum agreed to the additional year about 14 1/2 months before the old deal was set to expire at the end of 2013. When it comes to potential free agency, boxing isn’t any different than the NFL, NBA and major-league baseball. There’s plenty of speculation about any athlete, coach or manager entering the final year of a deal. It indicates uncertainty on both sides.

For all sides, money is the bottom line. For Pacquiao, there’s anecdotal evidence that it’s a potential issue There are reported problems with both the Internal Revenue Service and Filipino tax authorities. Perhaps, the stories are overblown. Perhaps, they’ll be settled before the first page in the new calendar is turned. But the ominous smoke is there.

If in fact Pacquiao needs money, the best way to get the most of it is in a fight against Mayweather. No secret there. There’s renewed speculation in an unsourced story about a Mayweather-Pacquiao fight happening in September. It’s about as believable as any other off-the-wall New Year prediction and as likely as Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. ever making weight. But it’s getting attention, which is a sure sign that it’s still the one fight everybody wants to see. Mayweather, of course, has repeatedly insisted he’ll never fight Pacquiao for as long as he is represented by Arum. Mayweather’s latest attack of Pacquiao via social media appears to be a poorly disguised attempt at badgering the Filipino Congressman into making a move.

In part, Mayweather is an example of how the best boxers can evolve as businessmen. Mayweather is now a promoter, an independent entrepreneur aligned with Golden Boy and under contract to Showtime. A better example is Miguel Cotto, who has avoided the bitter feuds and been able to do business with Top Rank, Golden Boy and any other entity in the promotional swamp. By the way, Cotto is friendly with Pacquiao, who beat him in 2009.

Will Pacquiao follow Cotto’s model? Split with Arum? Follow the money to Mayweather for a 2015 fight? Retire after losing to Bradley or Marquez? A New Year offers answers to 2014′s undisputed Story of the Year.

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